Selection Worries

With the weather shaping as overcast, both sides have a lot to consider.

As I suggested, Jon Trott has been bought into the England squad as an each way bet supposedly to cover Flintoff but don't be surprised to see him batting at three in place of Bopara. Ryan Sidebottom will be considered for Broad's bowling place.

Brett Lee is just about knocking down the selectors door to be back in the side but its unlikely he will be be picked. Stuart Clarke looks certain to return to the team and will likely replace Siddle, although the smarter move would be to play him in Hauritz's place and field four quicks. Having a spinner is unnecessary here, as no Australian spinner has done well at Headingley since Grimmett and O'Reilly. The great SK Warne only took three wickets here in three attempts. I wouldn't play Johnson but the selectors are committed to a course of action with the left armer and must continue now or look even more foolish. If committed to four, then even smarter would be to play Lee in place of Siddle. On this deck, that might be about right and Lee would bring an emotional commitment to the side which help it achieve the lift it needs.

Michael Clarke is under an injury cloud but almost has to play unless Phil Hughes was invited back again. As leading run scorer and Australia's most consistent batsman, Clarke's absence would be a massive blow.

Brad Haddin is another fighting an injury but its hard to imagine him "doing a Healy" and playing only a week after a broken finger.

See more by clicking on the video link "4th Test Selections"

Historically, Headingley is an each way bet when these two countries play. Australia have won only one more Test here than England (8-7), with 8 draws in contests which go back to 1899. In all matches played by England at Headingley, they have won 44%. Only Edgbaston has been more successful for them. In the memory of all but young correspondents, Leeds has a "result" ground, with only two draws since 1980 and England winning six of the last ten, including the last game between these combatants in 2001 when Australia made 447 batting first, Gilchrist declared the second and England made 4-315 batting last, with Mark Butchering the Australian attack in his best Test innings of 173 not out.

It's a paceman's track usually, and the curator is reporting a hard, fast pitch. More importantly, that bane of Phil Hughes tour - inconsistent bounce - doesn't happen in this part of Yorkshire. This pitch is more "Australian" than most English decks, so in many respects, its like coming home for the Aussies. All the more reason to play Lee perhaps?

Ponting is the only current Australian batsman to have played here and the pace in the pitch is further proved by his two centuries from three digs and an average of 114. This is the one ground in England he has reached his standard at. He'll get a century here or something mighty close but all of the Australians should like the surface. However, with overcast conditions predicted, it will be the swing of the ball that may be telling factor. Whilst none of the English players used this series has a great record at Headingley, Ryan Sidebottom took 8 wickets at 10 in his only Test at the ground in 2007 against the much weaker West Indies, including five lbw and one bowled. You don't have to be a genius to imagine he aims at the stick and can swing it a bit. He'll play here. Check out the "Why Does The Ball Swing" link on this page.

Of the Lions, only Strauss and Bell have Tests centuries on this ground, both scored against Pakistan in 2006. Collingwood, Cook and Flintoff have been strangely quiet at Headingley with only two half-centuries between them. Bell had some luck at Edgbaston but he still impresses me. The real question will be over how much of Flintoff's injury is truth or ruse. The Poms have played the psychological games well this time and I suspect the big fella is harder to kill off than John Howard. Even quarter fit he's a dangerous competitor and a man who stirs his team mates to action. Its the reason why he was mistakenly made captain and why England subsequently lost the Ashes in 06-07.

Despite form, despite selection problems and fitness and other clouds, I think Australia can win here because the pitch will remind them of home and they have the momentum with them after Edgbaston. They will have to bowl two or three hundred percent better than at any time of the tour and take 20 English wickets in one game where they have taken only 45 in three. That is the darkest cloud of all.