Australia v England - 4th Test Review

With England 1-0 up after Adelaide, Australia was always going to be on knife edge for each of the remaining three Tests, whilst England had the luxury of playing one or maybe two dud games and still being the Ashes holders at the end of the first week in January. Perth, always likely to be a difficult venue for England's batsmen and their trump bowler Swann, proved to be the case only in far more emphatic style thanks to an Australian side which had fired itself up in the traditional way of philosophical face slapping and bile driven attitude.

Regardless of the size of the Perth victory, there are still more questions to be asked of the Australians than the English and most are the same quizzes that had been proposed before the series started.

Only half the Australia top six is in form. Shane Watson has been consistently pulling and driving the English fast men with that broad blade of his and it is only in moments of self mounted pressure that he allows doubt to get him out - hence the second innings lbw to Tremlett, a familiar mode of execution for Watson but one that disappears when he is striding forward with the longest reach in cricket. Brad Haddin, the perennial scrapper, has fought these Englishmen ball after ball and deserves to be batting at six but perhaps, by his own choice, stays at the traditional, Rod Marsh established seven. Michael Hussey has had enough written of him in three Tests to ensure deserved legend status and in reality, he is the main reason Australia are still floating along beside the HMS Britannia on apparently even terms because until now, he has negated Graeme Swann.

Of the others, Ricky Ponting, Michael Clarke and which ever left hander opens with Watson, have all structured a consistency based on failure. Ponting and Clarke are great players so they can be expected to score well in at least one innings of the four that may be left to them this series. Ponting likes to fight from behind the advantage line and there is no question mark over his toughness so if Australia bat first in front of Melbourne crowd baying for Christians to slay the Lions, don't be surprised if the pugnacious little nut tries to take the game away from England. Clarke, despite his ability, has other question to answer and Hughes is not a Test standard batsman.

England's batting line up will be relieved to have left Perth but rather than blame the pitch, they will have needed to redress the real issues with a batting line up that had been more dominant that even the 1970-71 side in the first two Tests. Some poor shots were played and the capitulation under psychological fire in the second innings was atypical of their tour. England don't need to improve their batting technique, their need to change their cause and response to the verbal games with which the Australians pantsed them in Perth. Kevin Pietersen, Matt Prior and James Anderson are just three who were too easily distracted from looking at the big picture after having previously looked more mature than to be trapped by Australian verbal aggression. How they change their response will decide the Ashes.

Collingwood is the only weakness in this batting line up and Bell, frankly, its star, but calls to promote Bell to three are among the most unrealistic made so far in this summer of claim and counter claim. Bell to five is do-able but will further undermine Collingwood's confidence and expose him very little less than he currently is. Bell to four would rattle the castle of the often fragile Pietersen and England need him to be robust. Bell to three would unseat England's next best technical batsman and Bell has never had prolonged success in that high placement. The only real option was Bell to five and a new batsman at six and that's not likely.

Thanks to poor selection, Australia's bowling choices are limited and more likely to loose them the Melbourne Test than win it. Four quicks on the slow MCG will deliver the game to England from lunch on Day 3 onwards which means Michael Beer must make the most pressured debut in Ashes cricket in the last thirty years. In doing so, the selectors have placed Little Red Riding Hood in the hands of the Big Bad Wolf, hoping for another fairy tale ending whose basis is that Englishmen can't play the style of spin bowling they most face in county cricket. The young man best be more hops than froth but oh my, Grandma, what wide bats they have.

Siddle is muted to be the man who will mix drinks until the New Year but given the way Hilfenhaus has been mistreated by the firm of Hilditch and Co, don't be surprised if the Victorian plays, especially given the role of Major Mongrel that the skipper entrusted him with in Perth. Harris and Johnson earned their spot last week and Smith will certainly bowl given the nature of the wicket.

England's only real selection quandary lies in whether Steve Finn plays. The young man takes wickets but in Perth as well as Adelaide, he gave away runs bowling the right line but the wrong length. His height and lively enough pace make him a threat to the Aussies but he was either way too short or way to full in Perth and was hammered for it. Some say he is tired but can a 21 year old be so tired so quickly? He takes wickets at a good clip and has done all his Test career but unless he can keep the pressure applied at one end when it is his turn to do so, Swann loses effectiveness. Placing this Australian batting line up under pressure is the key strategy that Andrew Strauss and the playmakers of England formulated to win the series this summer and Finn is allowing it to unravel. Despite doubts, Anderson will be fit and Tremlett has certainly bowled himself into this side and was far more effective that than the baby-faced assassin Broad, whom he replaced. Tim Bresnan should therefore replace Finn - at least for Melbourne - giving Strauss a fresh start on the pressure approach and providing a handy extra batsman at eight, allowing Swann to be a very useful nine.

I have previously stated England will win in Melbourne and Perth hasn't changed that opinion. It will boil down to a few key issues:

• Swann will have his best pitch of the series. He must come to terms with and master Hussey. If he can't master him, he must keep him quiet
• England's three pacemen must keep the Australians under pressure, making runs difficult. There can be no half volleys or half trackers. Make them work for runs and the Australians can become brittle
• Johnson must be able to deliver the inswinger. His spell in the first innings at Perth won the Test match but there wasn't one inswinger in the second innings
• England must treat the sledging with a "stiff upper lip". If they engage, they open themselves up psychologically. Their mental strength had been their trump until Perth
• Ponting's captaincy was never under pressure in Perth, as first plans worked. It's when he has to think on his feet and adapt or adopt second or third plans he resorts to "barn door" field placing and poor bowling selections
• Beer must succeed. He must worry the Englishmen. He must dominate them. He must make a remarkable debut

Weighing the evidence, Australia has a lot of "ifs" that need to go right and England just two "buts" but who can tell what might happen in that cauldron of national fervour that is the MCG on Boxing Day. In the seventies, 90 000 mad florists calling for "Lillee, Lillee" was enough for otherwise strong Englishmen to shatter to dust but I'm not sure what the effect of the same number of slobbering yobbos wanting to show off their Johnson will have.

England to win I think.