Save Face Or Four Quicks?

With the forecast for the Perth Ashes Test which starts tomorrow being all about heat, dry weather and then increasing winds blowing in from the interior, both sides have to ask themselves some questions but only England have the ready answers.

With only Broad to be replaced, England have the relatively easy task of slotting Chris Tremlett into the side. A tall man who likes to hit the deck, he'll fit nicely into Broad's enforcer role.

Australia, on the other hand, will obviously play Hughes and must play Smith or have a longer tail to talk of than Lord of the Rings. That leaves the big debate as to whether Ponting goes in with four quicks or three and the potential debutant, Michael Beer. That's how the theory goes but in reality, Andrew Hilditch and his fellow mysterians have never been big on losing face and to rightly axe Doherty, still leave Hauritz wandering about outside the ground without even the suggestion of an explanation and then not play Beer is too much national disgrace to contemplate, so Beer Will play. Harris was the best of the bowlers in Adelaide so he must play although the same could have been said about Hilfenhaus in Brisbane and he sat in the sheds in Adelaide scratching his head. Hilfenhaus will play because Ponting and his batting mates the selectors can't get it wrong two Tests in a row ... or can they? Johnson, under any approach which contains logic should remain in the reserves because his problems need serious attention, not just a game off holding hands with Troy Cooley. Siddle has done little wrong except failing to take wickets in Adelaide but perhaps those that dropped catches should be dropped not the energetic Victorian.

Alas, I fear that Siddle will be the one to miss out and in doing so, we will hand the Ashes to England ... as if Ponting's on field tactics, the team's poor fielding, a lack of partnership batting and a defensive approach to the series hasn't already. Beer will face a stern test on days four and five under hot, trying conditions when much more will be anticipated of this young man than is fair to expect. Whichever Englishman planted the idea among the learned four of a weakness through Strauss' batting lineup to left arm spinners has earned a knighthood.

Of the new boys, only Smith can be expected to make the flintstones spark as he is the genuine article and should have started the series at 7 to Haddin's 6. He will greatly improve the standard of fielding in the Australian side and his bowling is the variation Ponting needs, as the English have always dreaded leg spin and Warne's ghost still lingers among them and it doesn't look like Liz Hurley. Even though Adelaide exorcised most of the demons, Smith may still be able to work the deeper set fears in the batting lineup but it will take imaginative, aggressive, instinctive captaincy ... and we only have Ponting.

If Hughes makes more than twenty before being caught somewhere between keeper and gully it will be because England has dropped him.

Ponting likes Perth with its predictable bounce and he'll make runs here, as will Clarke but its the collapses in twos, threes and fours that fold the legs on Australia's card table and there is no reason to imagine that will change.

England to win on the fifth morning.