New Zealand Might Put Us On Shaky Ground

Australia could well experience their first World Cup defeat this afternoon and evening and at the hands of a nation who are trying hard to come to terms with the tragedy they can only watch on TV screens. Committed to the task at hand and mindful of a nation's tearful wish that their cricket side give them something to rally about, the New Zealanders have in the past risen to glory when needed. After all, beating Australia is all they can do for their country.

On the flip side, the Australians couldn't help but be moved and if only one or two allow compassion to stand in the way of reason, then Black Caps might mow them down.

The Nagpur wicket favours the Aussies. It is one of the few on the sub continent where quicks can extract some life and as they are fielding the only team in the tournament which relies on "shock and awe", response from the deck would be gladly appreciated. The Australian pace attack has been called "naked violence" by one writer but speed through the air soon dissipates on most wickets in this region of the world. Speed is a handy weapon but only when its adjunct is bounce and only when it is inextricably linked with direction. Jason Gillespie describes the Australia attack as one which could dismiss the opposition for 50 or 500 - the former relying on Brett Lee and the later the responsibility of Tait and Johnson. In every game, they'll be a gamble.

It should also be noted, Australia is the only side so far in the tournament to play only one spinner.

New Zealand are likely to open with the off spinner Nathan McCullum bowling his tight line to the stumps, a move which will not go well with Haddin or Ponting early on. Haddin has looked glued to his crease and Ponting's reputation against spin was earned and lost long ago. Beyond that, the Kiwis will rely on a slow deck, Vettori bowling ten for 25 and the "dibbly dobblers" doing their thing. Its not a potent attack, just an annoying one and its easy to imagine 250 being conjured up.

In reply, the 50/500 attack will hope for wickets against a batting line up which is willing to belt you and more than capable of it. Brendan McCullum and Scott Sirius are likely to be the key men but again, its not hard to imagine the Kiwis going 250 plus.

Lots of dangers for Australia in this one and there were before Christchurch got turned inside out. This is one of the games I saw in the draw that could put the Aussies out in the first round and that was before events this week, with Ponting again allowing his kettle to boil over in premature protectulation and the New Zealand squad being reminded of why home is where the heart is.

Kiwis to win in a high scoring thriller.