Most of the Questions Have Been Asked

Dale Steyn - world #1

The weather, rather than the pitch or the composition of the teams, is the only variable not already factored to the full for the 1st Test against South Africa, scheduled to begin in Brisbane from 10:00 am tomorrow. The rest has been dossiered, debated, discussed and analysed by everyone from the captains through to the least interested patron in the front bar of the Imperial Hotel.

Brisbane weather can be fairly accurately described as unpredictable. No other capital city so regularly attracts rainfall but so often in a manner outside the computer models or entrails of goat or whatever the BOM uses to determine the where, when and how much the little patters will drum their beats on suburban roofs.

In the case of the first contest between two of the three best teams in world cricket, rain will fall on the first three days. If the forecasters are right, the worst of it will fall between tea on day one and tea on day two. Day one will be disrupted but with luck, half a day should be possible during an on and off affair. Day two will almost certainly be lost to the conditions.

It raises the question: can either side win inside three and a half days.

Twelve months ago - to the day - South Africa beat Australia in seven sessions at Capetown in the now infamous match in which 23 wickets fell on the second day an done those rare days of Test cricket when all four innings of the match had wickets fall on the same day. Its possible but is it likely?

Australia haven't been aided by injuries in the lead up, most notably, the loss of Shane Watson. Having lost most of last summer to injury, the Australian vice-captain is missing again. Its hard to know what has been more notable about Watson's Test career: the matches he has missed through minor injuries or the centuries he has missed through minor lapses in concentration. In any event, the addition of Rob Quiney is a plus and has the added advantage of reminding Ed Cowan that his honeymoon is over and its time to stop dropping his sox in the kitchen.

Ricky Ponting appears to have come through his minor hamstring discomfort or was that Pat Howard taking wool and pulling it over the eyes of Tasmanian officials in order to give his senior man an extra day of preparation?

Despite the leadership and quality batting of Clarke, despite the improvements which have spread through the Australians from the very top to the very bottom, despite playing at home ... its South Africa who will not only start as warm favourites but who will also win this abridged series.They'll win it because they have too many weapons. Like Doc Holiday, Graeme Smith has all the aces and all the trumps and its only a matter of how and when he plays them.

Jacques Kallis - 12641 runs, 280 wkts,
187 catches, 43 centuries

It will boil down to South Africa have the better batsmen and plenty of them. Smith, Hasim Amla, AB DeVilliers and Jacques Kallis are all top ten. In the past two years of Test cricket, Kallis has the best batting average of all Test players (1342 runs @ 79) and Amla is only just behind him (1465 runs at 73). Despite the improvement in our bowling and as a unit, Australia has nothing which can counter that. On the flip side, Dale Steyn has got better and stayed as fast and Vernon Philander - below his own impossible standards as England were dethroned - still has 63 wickets at 15. Who does that?

So the South Africans have an overpowering batting line up which likes to overwhelm opposition bowlers by using attacking strokemakers (Smith, Alviro Petersen, Kallis, deVilliers, Jacques Rudolph) around the builders (Amla and Duminy). With deVilliers keeping, South Africa can pick seven batsmen and still have enough bowlers to do the job.

By comparison with Australia, this is a surfeit of riches. For the home team, Ponting, Clarke and Michael Hussey are still a formidable middle order but the top three don't come within an unhappy bull of the opposition's first trio and they will be facing a new red ball trio which is unmatched in current Test cricket. As a group, they are probably better than Lillee, Thompson and Walker, although I wouldn't like to be in the room with you whilst you try and explain it to Chappelli's old fire brigade.

Winners takes all

The Australians will compete. South Africa brings the best in them because its like playing the kids from the next street. We've grown up in the same neighbourhood, played on the same streets and are graduates with the same hard knocks. We make our kids into strokemakers and frightening fast bowlers and we chase down and field like demons with the same possession ...

... but a good big man will always beat a good little man and the fellows on the other side are all a tad bigger and all talk with those strange vowels which makes them sound like Kiwis with attitude. In a two hose race anyone can win but its usually the thoroughbred.

Should it be otherwise, it will be one hell of a series.