3-0 England

I am unusually vexed. Normally, I find nominating series results an easy task. Logically, England will win in Australia and they will win well. Probably 3-0. Most likely at least 3-0.

The problem is, Australia need to do well and they need to do well in this series or like the Labor party, they face a long time in the wilderness.

The second problem, rising as it does from the first, is how can that be achieved? There was encouragement to be taken from the series loss in England - unlike the disaster of India which preceded it - and there can be little doubt that the 3-0 scoreline didn't reflect the distance between the two sides. That said, England were clearly the better side.

Apart from injury, England can't be diminished. Certainly Graeme Swann isn't the threat he is almost everywhere else but visiting spinners down under seldom are. Murali, the equal of Shane Warne as a threat to batsmen, was to Australia as Warne was to India. Both bowled like impotent old men on those particular foreign shores. For all intents, they may has well been bowling on Mars.

England know this. It's why they have chosen a pace pregnant attack: a tall, intimidating pace pregnant attack. They know what the Australian wickets hold. Last journey here, Chris Tremlet waited for his turn but when it was offered, he was nasty. He was ugly. He made grown men hook injudiciously ... and duck ... and weave. Steve Finn and James Anderson will do much of the same, although Anderson will bend the ball at pace on the off stump as well.

Then there is the batting line up which enters the first Test in Brisbane bristling with runs. Pietersen is the only member of the top six with an average below 75 on this tour and Alastair Cook, returning new comer Michael Carberry, Ian Bell and Jonathan Trott all have centuries. As preparations go, they don't get much better than this.

Bairstow for Prior might happen by injuries account, but whilst the wicket keeping is weakened, the batting suffers no loss.

Clarke's Australian's are at their best, except of course for the host of fast bowlers who are injured. What gives with stress fractures? You are no one unless you have one. So depleted are the stocks that Mitchell Johnson return is Brisbane, his mandate clear and already explained to both him and the Englishmen. John Inverarity spelled it out at the media event to announce Australia's team. Johnson is there to act the bully-boy. Short and dangerous.

I don't wish to be the harbinger of doom but do we remember what happened the last time England were here? Yes we lost. Yes, yes, we lost badly. During the drubbing, what approach did our bowlers take? You forget? A reminder then ... they constantly bowled short. Cook and Trott, targets it would appear of Johnson off his leash and rabid over the next short while at the Gabba, hooked and pulled their way to mammoth series aggregates. That must have forgotten how to play those sots in the intervening few years.

Still, what other choice did the selectors have? If you don't pick Johnson, you pick either Doug Bolinger or the old rookie, former Newcastle now WA quick, Matt Hogan. Damn.

George Bailey deserves his spot at six but the chance has been missed to shape the Australian line up with a future bias. Alex Doolan should have been chosen at three. He was Ponting's pick. Yes Watson made 100 large after the Ashes were lost but who, apart from his Mum, thinks Shane Watson is Australia's number three over the next five years? Doolan at three, Watson at six. Harsh on Bailey but a better balance.

Still balance isn't a charge to be laid at this Australian side over the last five years.

Back to the bumpers Johnson is to bowl. Interesting tactic. England have the attack best equipped to bowl the short stuff and Australia have the most suspect batman facing it. Michael Clarke can muscle up all he likes, but since his back became weaker than paper mache in a Brisbane storm, he may as well draw a target on his chest and helmet.

For Australia to win Test matches, Nathan Lyon must win the battle against England's middle order of Pietersen and Bell ... and that looks dreadfully unlikely. It looks like going dramatically the other way. The other battle lies between Ryan Harris and Alastair Cook and as good as the Australian is, Cook is better. Finally, two Australian batsmen must stand beside Clarke and score 400 runs for the series.

These are things that need to happen. I didn't say they would.

For the sake of Australian cricket, they need to win ... a match would be good for a start, with seven losses in the past nine games. One win in this series would be a bonus to celebate but they'll have to take it from one of the draws at Melbourne or Adelaide because England will win at Brisbane, Perth and Sydney.

For a start, late afternoon thunderstorms might get them off to a positive draw in Brisbane but lets image the impossible.

3-1 England (the 1 is based on hope, not likelihood) and Brisbane will be the first of their wins.

Please Lord, keep me safe from Pommies until later in January.