Day 4

Apologies to Cricketragics, as I took the romantic option last night and listened to play via a small transistor radio - once I would have said tranny - from my camp site in the Warrumbungles NP. The wife and I were testing out our new camping trailer. It struct me that my father, when he looked like boy, listened to Ashes Tests from England on his crystal radio and did the same in 1972 when Chappelli's men became heroes. I wonder what we are robbing our your lads of by direct ball by ball TV coverage?

Result of the poll as to who will win the match has gone 100% in favour of an England win.

Leaving aside the much there is to say about yesterday's play, I'll instead offer on the chances of Australia winning. After all, with two days left, it won't be a draw and England are short odds.

Can Australia win?

In any two team contest, both sides can always win but as a match ebbs and flows, fortunes and that history I have referred to all change the possibilities. At the moment, a snowballs chance in hell would be my colourful yet accurate assessment of Australia scoring the squillions of runs required.

125 years is a long time. Statistics gathered over such a long time, apart from causing a bout of extreme salivation in statisticians (1-86 Katich 43 lbw Swann), it also provides what is known as and extremely good sample. Variations caused by changes in wickets, the ability of players, developments in wickets etc etc etc are negated by a good sample. In that 125 years, no teams has scored this many (2-90 Watson 40 lbw Broad) runs in the 4th innings to win. No team has got within 150 of the total Stauss has challenged Australia to make. Worse, at The Oval, the highest 4th innings winning total is 263 so to win. Australia has to more than double that stat. Over long periods of time - lets say 125 years - changes in stats tend to be incremental not great leaps and changes that are demanded here.

Then there's a deteriorating wicket, a confident group of bowlers against team of increasing doubt as shown my the constant suggestion that even the umpires are against them.

Can they win? Yes they can. Will they win. Not likely.

To score 546, three of them have to score hundreds and one of those has to score large. Three others in the top eight have score 30-50. That leaves the last three somewhere between 50 and 80 to make between them. The English bowlers have to lose the plot. Strauss has to forget everything he has learned and desired against Australia. These last two have to happen together and for five or six sessions.

Not likely.