"Come In Spinners" - How Accurate Was My Ashes Preview?

What I said in "Come In Spinners", my Ashes preview. Comments made today are in italics.
• England will win the series 2-1 The fat lady she has sat down and the guy with swivel hips is on his way to the exit.
• Australia will have shoddy match preparation with few true first class games outside the Tests. This will always be the case. Australia did, however, have the benefit of being knocked out in the first round of the Twenty20 World cup before the Ashes, and two three day games against no one, and will now gain further advantage by playing in a series of seven money spinners of fifty overs each against England. How did we only lose 2-1?
• England has a better balanced bowling attack which will bowl better in the conditions. They have better swingers, cutters and spinners than Australia. Given that the ball swings in England, it probably makes sense to someone why we only played one swing bowler in the first three Tests. The same person might tell us why we didn’t play a spinner on a wicket so dry that Peter O’Toole used to entertain lunchtime crowds by walking up and down the pitch reprising his role as Lawrence of the Oval shouting “no prisoners, no prisoners!”
• England will bat better than Australia because they will face an ill-balanced, inexperienced bowling line up. England didn’t collapse as often
• England are more settled and will make fewer changes. England used 15 players and 7 of them played all five Tests. Pietersen (2) and Flintoff (4) missed games through injury. Panesar and Onions were dropped by choice but Bopara was the only player dropped because of poor form. Australia fielded 14 players and eight of them played in all of the Tests. Hughes (form) and Haddin (injury) were dropped and Hauritz by choice. England used the following numbers of players in previous Ashes series at home: 2005 (12), 2001 (19), 1997 (18), 1993 (24), 1989 (29)
• Strauss will do a better captaincy job than Ponting
• England will be tougher in the tight spots

Things I got right, quoted from “Come In Spinners”
• “I think England will win an exciting series 2-1” Elvis has left the building.
• “Australia will have to be measured against the terms it has exacted on the rest of the cricket word for so long – accurate medium fast men and spin bowling” Australia collapsed three times in the first innings of the five Tests and with the English quicks doing the damage. Swann wasn’t as big a danger but when he had to, he stepped up with 3 four wickets hauls.
• “Andrew Strauss is the best man to lead England and has been for some time. He relishes the tough stuff with a captaincy batting average of 57 in comparison to his career average of nearly 44." 474 at 52.67 (318 at 63.6 in his first innings of the Tests)
Strauss again “He’s lucky at the toss” Strauss won 4 tosses, Ponting only getting the call at Edgbaston.
• “Ravi Bopara averages a tick under fifty and has three hundreds in successive Test innings which places him among a quality English list of Sutcliffe, Compton, Boycott and Gooch who achieved the same. Time will tell if he’s of that pedigree … judgment reserved as yet.” Their selection blunder of the series. He could come back but at No 6.
• Freddie Flintoff “England may be better served with him at 7. Forget the Flintoff we saw burdened by the captaincy in Australia. Unbridled and free to work his magic, he’ll bat well and bowl better.” He did bat at 7, and scored that glorious 74 at Edgbaston after a tail ending 5-92 at Lords. He clearly was well below his best in this series but his presence was still felt.
• “mercurial Ian Bell … will need injuries to force his way into the side. He is a player who fails as often as he succeeds.” Two fifties but could only average 28. He’ll never have a better chance to dominate an Aussie attack. Stick to the provincials Ian.
• “key difference lies in the off spin of Graeme Swann.” He was the key bowler in the 2nd innings at Lords, getting Hussey, Clarke and North in his 4 wickets and then 8 wickets in the last Test but for the rest of the series only took 2 additional wickets.
Swann again “more than half his wickets from bowled and lbw dismissals” 7 of 14 in this series
and again “he’s also a hard hitting No 9 batsman with a Test fifty and an average of 35.” Two half centuries and a 47no. If you remove Trott (1) and Pietersen (2) who didn't play many Tests, he was second in the English batting averages!
• “England will pick two of the remaining four during the series: Graham Onions, Jimmy Anderson, Monty Panesar & Steve Harmison.” Onions (3), Anderson (5), Panesar (1) & Harmison (2)
• Katich “He is also Australia's best spin option but he will likely continue to be ignored by a Captain who thinks spinners are only there to speed up the over rates.” 10-2-27-0 … Clarke bowled 19 overs and North 67
• “Hughes will continue to be plagued by questions over his technique” Apparently the Australian selectors wanted quick answers.
• Hughes “He’ll score early runs” 78 against Sussex in June and 68 against Northants after the 2nd Test, which was enough to help get him dropped.
• Hughes “England is better run and managed and they’ll work him out. He won’t be winning games at Birmingham or Leeds.” Pretty hard to win if you’re not playing.
• “If Hussey fails, Australia can’t win.” That Elvis bloke is leaving again.
• Michael Clarke “he’ll have moments of genius in this series.” He did in each of the first four Tests. Unfortunately, in the 5th he was like Bullwinkle the Magician … nothing up my sleeve, whoops, must be the wrong hat.
• “don’t be surprised if the Golden Wonder Boy of Australian Cricket, Shane Watson plays sooner rather than later.” Took over from Hughes in the 3rd Test and uses his pads more than a roomful of senior citizens watching a comedian.
• Mitchell Johnson “Will he swing the ball? We’ve all seen him do it but will he in England?” No he won’t.
• Stuart Clark “Australia will win Test matches if his fitness holds and he can bowl at his best.” Yes he will.
• “England have the best two spinners available to either side.” Unfair statement really. Australia didn’t have a spinner.
• “Their bowling is better balanced and without question marks.” Completely right on the first part of the quote but maybe some quietly spoken questions about Mr Anderson.
• Ponting “He is no leader of men and it shows. Ponting has no instinct, no feel for the game.” Come back Elvis, come back!
• “England should win if they can be tougher in the tight spots.” This they were. Cardiff at the death; first innings at Lords, Edgbaston & The Oval; and the last day at the Oval. Australia won some tough moments but England the most. Australia constantly lost wickets in groups of two, three and four but England rarely did.

Things I got wrong, quoted from the same source:
• “Collingwood you would have bat for your life” … only if other forms of dispatch were unavailable
• Stuart Broad “looks the most likely to be collared by ruthless destroyers like Ponting and accumulators of the Hussey and Katich ilk. He will battle to hold his spot.” My biggest clanger for the series.
• “Katich will be our best bat.” He was among those that followed Clarke.
• “I think our batting line up is weaker than theirs.” No it’s not. They are about even but we just collapsed more often.
• “Ricky Ponting is the big question mark in the batting line-up because England has long been his Achilles Heel.” This was his best tour of England with the bat. His 78 at Headingley was superb.
• Ben Hilfenhaus “he can be got at and therefore Ponting will shield him and keep him fielding rather than bowling.” Wrong!
• Ponting “Tactically, he has little acumen beyond the game plan.” I think I could defend this one but there were strong signs of Ponting standing up and doing the business on the field. Too little, too late though because he’s still not Taylor’s bootlace.

That's it, my moment of self-aggrandisement. If I wasn't so circumspect, I'd point out that I have called, accurately the last three Ashes series results, missing out only slightly when England last toured, thinking Australia would win 4-1. Luckily, I won't do that.

A brief Ashes review next blog.